How Diem Survived 1954 Saigon

Overview

In the fall of 1954, Ngo Dinh Diem’s survival as South Vietnam’s leader seemed almost impossible. The religious sects controlled more soldiers than his government. Army Chief Nguyen Van Hinh openly plotted a coup. French officials dismissed him as a “messiah without a message.” Even American diplomats prepared contingency plans for his replacement.

Yet by early 1955, Diem was still standing—and preparing to strike back. How did this seemingly powerless leader survive?

The Enemies

The Sects

Three major forces controlled much of South Vietnam:

Cao Dai (Great Way):

Syncretic religion mixing Buddhism, Taoism, Confucianism, and Catholicism
2 million followers
25,000 soldiers
Based in Tay Ninh province
French subsidies: 8 million piasters monthly

Hoa Hao:

Reformed Buddhist sect
1.5 million followers
15,000 soldiers
Controlled western Mekong Delta
French subsidies: 5 million piasters monthly

Binh Xuyen:

Criminal organization, not religious
Controlled Saigon police and gambling/prostitution
40,000 men (including police)
Led by Bay Vien, former river pirate
Paid Emperor Bao Dai for police franchise

The Military

Army Chief Nguyen Van Hinh despised Diem:

French citizen and officer
Saw Diem as incompetent civilian
Plotted openly with French backing
Tank units positioned near presidential palace

The French

France still had troops in Vietnam and opposed Diem:

Preferred their own candidates
Subsidized the sects to maintain influence
Believed Diem would fail

Survival Strategies

1. American Protection

Colonel Edward Lansdale, CIA operative, became Diem’s guardian angel:

Provided intelligence on coup plots
Advised on counter-strategies
Channeled American support directly to Diem
Pressured Washington to maintain commitment

When Hinh prepared his coup, Americans made clear: the aid stops if Diem is overthrown. This deterred action.

2. Divide and Buy

Diem couldn’t defeat all enemies at once. He divided them:

Made deals with individual sect leaders
Offered government positions to some
Promised to continue French subsidies
Played factions against each other

Some Cao Dai and Hoa Hao leaders accepted integration into the national army.

3. Remove the Army Chief

In November 1954, Diem moved against Hinh:

Got American backing to remove him
Hinh was “promoted” to study in France
Replaced with more loyal officers

With Hinh gone, the immediate coup threat diminished.

4. The Refugee Card

Nearly 1 million Catholic refugees from the North needed resettlement:

Diem directed resources to refugee communities
Settled them in strategic locations
Built a loyal political base
Catholics became his core supporters

The American Factor

Eisenhower’s Commitment

In October 1954, Eisenhower sent a letter to Diem promising direct American support. This was crucial:

Bypassed French colonial apparatus
Signaled American commitment
Gave Diem legitimacy

Lansdale’s Operations

Colonel Lansdale ran psychological operations:

Spread rumors of communist atrocities to encourage refugee flight
Built networks of Diem supporters
Provided intelligence on enemies
Advised on political tactics

State-building Analysis

Legitimacy Through Foreign Backing

Diem’s survival depended entirely on American support. This created a paradox:

Foreign backing kept him in power
But undermined nationalist credentials
Made him dependent on continued American commitment

Divide and Rule

Rather than building broad coalitions, Diem divided opponents:

Short-term effective
Long-term created resentments
No foundation for national unity

The Refugee Base

Catholics became Diem’s reliable supporters:

Grateful for resettlement assistance
Shared anti-communist ideology
Willing to support a fellow Catholic

But this alienated the Buddhist majority and created religious tensions that would later explode.

The Stage Set

By early 1955, Diem had survived the immediate crisis:

The army chief was gone
Some sect leaders were co-opted
American support was firm
A refugee base was being built

But the sects still had their armies. The Binh Xuyen still controlled Saigon’s police. The showdown was coming.

South Vietnam State-Building Series

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[S.Vietnam 2] How Diem Survived 1954 Saigon