The Lee-Takaichi Era: Will Korea-Japan Relations Freeze Again?
Key Takeaways
- Background: Both Korea and Japan have new leaders in 2025, creating uncertainty in bilateral relations
- Issue: Whether two leaders known for hardline stances on history can pivot to pragmatic diplomacy
- Outlook: Despite initial concerns, both sides may choose strategic peace over confrontation
New Leaders, Familiar Tensions
In 2025, new leaders have emerged on both the Korean Peninsula and the Japanese archipelago. In South Korea, President Lee Jae-myung was inaugurated in June. In Japan, Takaichi Sanae (高市早苗) became the new Prime Minister in October.
Both leaders had voiced hardline positions on historical issues before taking office. President Lee has shown more nationalistic tendencies than the Moon Jae-in administration. Prime Minister Takaichi, as the political successor of Abe Shinzo, has openly supported visits to Yasukuni Shrine.
Will Korea-Japan relations face another “annus horribilis”?
70 Years of Korea-Japan Relations: Recurring Patterns
The Era of Cooperation (1965-1998)
Since the 1965 Basic Treaty, Korea and Japan cooperated based on shared strategic and economic interests. During the Cold War, the common goal of countering communism and the need for economic development bound the two nations together.
Strong personal connections existed between Park Chung-hee and Japanese leaders like Kishi Nobusuke, Sato Eisaku, and Tanaka Kakuei. These relationships, forged through the Korean and Vietnam Wars, formed the foundation of bilateral cooperation.
The Return of History (1980s onwards)
However, the 1980s Japanese textbook controversy and the 1990s emergence of the “comfort women” issue brought history to the forefront of bilateral relations. After Korea’s democratization, as civil society’s voice grew louder, historical issues could no longer be “managed” by governments alone.
The 1998 Kim Dae-jung – Obuchi Declaration attempted to overcome these conflicts. Both nations agreed to “squarely face the past and advance toward the future.” Yet this agreement began to waver with changes in government.
Since 2015: A Decade on the Roller Coaster
The Comfort Women Agreement and Its Aftermath (2015-2017)
In December 2015, the Park Geun-hye and Abe governments announced a “final and irreversible” agreement on the comfort women issue. The key elements were Japan’s acknowledgment of “responsibility” and contribution of 1 billion yen.
However, after the Moon Jae-in government took office in 2017, this agreement was effectively nullified. President Moon declared that “the issue cannot be resolved with that agreement,” and Korea-Japan relations rapidly cooled.
2019: Annus Horribilis
2019 was the “annus horribilis” (horrible year) for Korea-Japan relations.
Key Events:
- October-November 2018: Korean Supreme Court ruling on forced labor compensation
- January 2019: Japanese patrol aircraft vs. Korean naval vessel incident
- July 2019: Japan’s export controls and whitelist removal
- August 2019: Korea’s decision to terminate GSOMIA (later suspended)
Boycotts of Japanese products spread nationwide, and public sentiment in both countries reached rock bottom.
The Yoon-Kishida Turnaround (2022-2024)
After the Yoon Suk-yeol government took office in 2022, Korea-Japan relations dramatically reversed. Prime Minister Kishida and President Yoon restored shuttle diplomacy, and in August 2023, held a trilateral summit with President Biden at Camp David.
However, this “spring” did not last long. Prime Minister Kishida stepped down in October 2024 due to the Unification Church scandal and tax increase controversy. President Yoon was impeached in December 2024 after his failed martial law attempt.
Variables in the Lee-Takaichi Era
Concerns
President Lee Jae-myung:
- More nationalistic rhetoric than the Moon government
- Pressure from progressive camp’s hardline stance on history
- Temptation to divert domestic political difficulties through diplomacy
Prime Minister Takaichi:
- As Abe’s political successor, supports Yasukuni visits
- History of revisionist statements
- Hardline diplomatic stance toward Korea and China
Hopeful Signs
However, since taking office, both leaders have shown more pragmatic approaches than expected.
President Lee has taken a more pragmatic approach to foreign policy than anticipated. Unlike his tough campaign rhetoric, he has shown efforts to avoid rapid deterioration of Korea-Japan relations since taking power.
Prime Minister Takaichi has also toned down her statements on historical issues since becoming PM. Last week’s first Korea-Japan summit was evaluated as relatively successful.
Analysis from a State-Building Perspective
Domestic Politics Determines Diplomacy
The history of Korea-Japan relations demonstrates how powerfully domestic politics shapes diplomacy.
Political Leadership: The ideological tendencies and political base of both nations’ leaders determine their Korea/Japan policies. Regime changes between conservative and progressive camps immediately translate into changes in bilateral relations.
Public Opinion: Since democratization in Korea, and recently in Japan, public opinion’s influence has grown. Leaders cannot make foreign policy decisions without considering their domestic support base.
The Special Nature of Historical Issues: Historical issues like comfort women and forced labor are unlike ordinary diplomatic matters—they are difficult to “compromise” on because they involve victims’ dignity and national identity.
Pressure from the Strategic Environment
At the same time, both nations face pressure from the strategic environment:
- North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats
- Intensifying US-China strategic competition
- US demands for strengthened alliance networks
These factors provide both leaders with incentives for cooperation rather than conflict.
Three Scenarios
Scenario 1: Strategic Peace
Both sides “manage” historical issues while focusing on security and economic cooperation. The most likely scenario.
Conditions: US mediation, continued North Korean threat, domestic political stability in both countries
Scenario 2: Gradual Deterioration
Conflicts over historical issues resurface, gradually cooling relations.
Conditions: Japanese court asset sales, Yasukuni visits, nationalist mobilization for domestic political needs
Scenario 3: Sudden Collision
A full-scale conflict like 2019 recurs.
Conditions: Unexpected events (military incidents, Supreme Court rulings) and hardline responses from both sides
Conclusion: Opportunity Amid Uncertainty
The future of Korea-Japan relations in the Lee-Takaichi era remains open.
What is clear is that Korea-Japan relations are no longer determined solely by personal relationships between leaders or government agreements. Civil society, public opinion, and the weight of history in both countries influence every decision.
Paradoxically, however, because both leaders are classified as “hardliners,” there may actually be room for pragmatic compromise. Just as Nixon visited China, sometimes hardliners possess the political capital to pursue flexible diplomacy.
It is time for all of us to watch closely how the next chapter of Korea-Japan relations will be written.