Xi, Putin, and Khamenei: How the Authoritarian Triangle Was Forged
Key Takeaways
- Background: Since the 2010s, one-man rule has consolidated in China, Russia, and Iran, accelerating a global trend of autocratization.
- Current State: To circumvent Western sanctions, these authoritarian states are deepening military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation.
- Implications: Their collaboration serves as a blueprint for “rogue states” including North Korea, undermining the liberal international order.
Why Did the Dictators Join Hands?
February 2022—just twenty days before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. At the Beijing Winter Olympics opening ceremony, Putin met Xi Jinping and declared a partnership with “no limits.” This was no mere diplomatic gesture. It was a meeting to secure China’s tacit approval for the Ukraine war and to forge a united front against Western sanctions.
That July, Putin visited Tehran to meet Supreme Leader Khamenei. The 85-year-old cleric defended Russia’s invasion as “preventive.” Iran then began unlimited supply of Shahed kamikaze drones to Russia.
Three countries with different systems, histories, and ideologies—why have they grown so close?
Domestic Autocratization Breeds External Solidarity
Political scientists view this as part of “autocratization as a global process.” The logic is straightforward: as dictators consolidate power domestically, they face Western criticism and sanctions, which in turn drives them toward countries in similar situations.
Xi Jinping: The Most Powerful Leader Since Mao
Since taking power in 2012, Xi has purged 440 senior officials under the banner of “anti-corruption.” He neutralized rival factions, amended the constitution in 2018 to abolish term limits, and at the 20th Party Congress in 2022, filled all seven Politburo Standing Committee seats with loyalists from his “Xi Clique” (习家军, Xí Jiājūn). The collective leadership system that endured for 40 years after Deng Xiaoping has effectively ended.
Vladimir Putin: Ruling Longer Than Stalin
Putin’s 2020 constitutional amendments enable him to rule until 2036—potentially surpassing Stalin’s 30-year reign. Opposition leader Navalny survived a poisoning attempt only to die in prison in 2024. The human rights organization Memorial was dissolved. Over 13,000 anti-war protesters have been detained.
Ali Khamenei: 35 Years of Theocratic Autocracy
Ruling Iran since 1989, Khamenei has consolidated power through electoral manipulation, direct institutional control, and brutal suppression of reform movements. During the 2022 hijab protests, over 200 people were killed. Despite economic crisis, the regime remains unshaken.
Circumventing Western Sanctions
Their solidarity yields concrete benefits.
Economic Workarounds: When SWIFT access was restricted, Russia and Iran linked their own financial messaging systems (SPFS and SEPAM). China imports Iranian oil through third countries like Malaysia.
Military Cooperation: Iran supplies drones and missiles to Russia; Russia shares captured U.S. and NATO weapons with Iran. Since 2019, the three nations have conducted annual joint naval exercises.
Diplomatic Coordination: At the UN Security Council, China and Russia invoke sovereignty and non-interference to counter the West. China’s 2023 brokering of the Iran-Saudi rapprochement signaled America’s declining Middle East influence.
State-Building Analysis: The Four Actors
From a state-building perspective, this phenomenon transcends conventional international politics.
- Political Leadership: All three dictators use external enemies to deflect from domestic crises (economic hardship, political challenges).
- Bureaucratic Apparatus: Intelligence services and militaries have become instruments of repression, loyal to one man.
- Social Forces: Civil society has been dismantled or silenced.
- Foreign Powers: Western sanctions have paradoxically strengthened authoritarian solidarity.
Implications for the Korean Peninsula
As this alliance strengthens, sanctions on North Korea lose effectiveness. Pyongyang is already deeply involved in the Ukraine war, supplying artillery shells and ballistic missiles to Russia in exchange for food, energy, and advanced military technology.
The larger problem is the message being sent: “Regimes can survive while defying the liberal international order.” When sanctions lose credibility, leverage for denuclearization negotiations weakens.
Three Scenarios
Scenario 1: Fractures in the Alliance
If Russia becomes overly dependent on China as the Ukraine war drags on, friction may emerge from Russia’s resentment of “junior partner” status. A power vacuum after Khamenei’s death could also shift Iran’s foreign policy.
Scenario 2: Continued Loose Coexistence
The current system of situational cooperation without formal alliance treaties persists. Western sanctions continue but fail to achieve full effect.
Scenario 3: Institutionalization of the Anti-Western Axis
Trilateral cooperation becomes institutionalized through the SCO or BRICS. North Korea, Belarus, and Venezuela join, consolidating an “authoritarian international.”
Conclusion: The Dictators’ Alliance Is No Accident
“There are no limits to our cooperation” (两国合作没有禁区).
This phrase from the 2022 Xi-Putin joint statement was not rhetoric. Domestic autocratization breeds external solidarity, which in turn legitimizes autocracy—a vicious cycle is at work.
The future of the liberal international order depends on breaking this cycle. And the Korean Peninsula stands at its front line.
References:
- Lars Rensmann, “Autocratization as a Global Process?” (2024)
- Angela Stent, “Russia and China: Axis of Revisionists?” Brookings (2020)
- Daniel Byman & Seth G. Jones, “Legion of Doom?” Survival (2024)
- Cho Young-nam, “Analysis and Evaluation of Political Changes in Xi Jinping’s China” (2023)
- Jang Se-ho, “Analysis and Prospects of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine” INSS (2022)